Is nuclear bluff the real reason for the DPRK's threats? How the market reacts to geopolitical news Financial markets to the beginning of the war in Korea

Donald Trump's threats against Southern Korea with "fire and wrath" have roiled the world's markets. As soon as the war breaks out, there is no humanitarian crisis. Shaking up the world's economy.

As shown by the analysis conducted by Capital Economics Ltd., the growth and growth of all goods from smartphones to cars and flat-screen TVs appears to be under a serious blow, which will hit the pace of economic growth around the world. increase prices. All that Pivdennaya Korea is an important lanyard in the lanyard of the supply necessary for the production of electrical devices. First of all, the Republic of Korea is the largest producer of RK monitors (found in the production of televisions and other electronic devices), accounting for nearly 40% of the world's total production. In other words, New Korea is another, behind the size of the world, producer of wireless devices (which are used on smartphones); This region accounts for 17% of the market. Thirdly, the Asian region is one of the world’s largest automobile manufacturers, and there are also three of the world’s largest shipyards.

“As Korean production is seriously affected by the war, shortages are visible throughout the world,” say economists at Capital Economics. “And now it’s time to restart the plant from the production of feeders, you need almost two rocks.” The same is true for shipping lines. Any conflict could disrupt the great routes of permanent protection for China, the world's largest trading power. “If it becomes more difficult to enter and exit Chinese ports, the global economy will suffer even more,” Capital Economics warns.

The costs for the USA can be colossal. The Federal Borg is growing even stronger through the need to finance war and life. If America spends approximately the same amount on reconstruction on the Korean Peninsula, as in the conflict with Iraq and Afghanistan, the national border will increase by another 30%, the company’s experts supported. However, we are crazy that the conflict has not yet reached such a stage, and in the opinion of many analysts, the fears are now exaggerated, expecting similar episodes of increasing tension in the future, as the end of the b. In this case, it is unclear how any kind of military conflict will unfold, and the diversity of potential participants in this process.

But it’s a shame that the whole thing won’t go to the point of stagnation, the stress of the hundred-hundreds is already a bad news for the growth of Eastern Asia, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “In modern Korea, uncertainty looms, fueling confidence that risks jeopardizing investment and the creation of workers. And in Japan, the growth of smoking is due to corporate profits and reflationary plans of the Central Bank.”

Light markets, which have not yet come to terms with the eruption of the Icelandic volcano and are painfully experiencing a skin novelty in Europe, will once again be at a disadvantage on the battlefield of the military conflict between Pivnichna and Pivden noah Korea.

Stock prices in Asia fell sharply, and shares of New Korea companies experienced massive sales after the conflict between New Korea and New Korea.

Pivnichnaya Korea, obviously, has brought the military to a state of war alert, as reported by the Pivnaya Korean snakes sent to experts in Seoul, who, on their own side, are fighting with their power jerels on the Pivnoch islands. Based on these data, Kim Jong Il has given special orders to the military ranks. There has not yet been any official confirmation of this information from Pyongyang, nor have there been any comments from the official side of South Korea, reports Reuters.

On Monday, Seoul announced that it would freeze all trade ships from Pivnichju, barring Korean ships from entering Pivnichev waters, which, according to the British agency, would be a devastating blow to the economy. This is the communist power. This became the testimony of the Pivdennoy Korea on the sinking of the corvette at Birch Rock. 46 sailors died. Reuters calls the attack a bloody episode in the inter-Korean valleys during the Night and Day War of 1950-53. A group of international experts found that the corvette was sunk by the launch of a Korean torpedo.

News from New and New Korea added stress to already nervous investors, as they sold off the euro on Monday on news from Spain about taking the CajaSur fractional bank under the control of the local regulator. Japan's Nikkei Index fell 2.8%, Australia's &P/ASX 200 fell 2.3%, and Korea's Kospi Composite Index fell 4.3%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng fell by 2.5%, and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.2%, reports The Financial Times.

As a result, the Korean currency fell to the US dollar in foreign exchange trading. At 10:57 a.m., the dollar was valued at 1,257.65 won, which is 43.15 won less than previous trading, indicating Yonhap. According to data from The Financial Times, during trading the Korean Central Bank had to intervene in order to avoid an even stronger fall in the national currency.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 3.1% to 109.24 at 1:30 a.m. in Tokyo, reaching its lowest level since the end of 2009, Bloomberg reported. “Increasing tensions in the Korean Peninsula, coupled with growing concerns, allow Europe’s sovereign risks to pour into investor sentiment,” Kim Yong Joon stated in an interview with the agency Ulsky NH-CA Asset Management. - However, Pivnichny Korea’s claim is a bluff. I don’t think there will be catastrophic events.”

“I think people need to react emotionally to things that happen. The neighboring countries and allies should not allow the conflict to flare up in the Korean Peninsula. Prote, be sure that such new products are pouring into financial markets every hour,” Lee Sun-Yup of the Shinhan Investment Corporation told FT.

On the other hand, Korean defectors in Seoul confirm on their website (www.nkis.kr) that the order about the introduction of military forces in Seoul will be issued on the 20th of May, before Seoul votes about the actions of the rebels for the attack of the South Koreans on Korean military ship.

The website displays words from a Pyongyang radio report: “We are not prepared for war. “If only Korea and the United States and Japan are on their tail, they will try to attack us, Kim Jong-il ordering us to complete the unification process, not to bring the (Korean) war to an end.” Southern Korean Serpents write that the government of Southern Korea deliberately fabricated the incident of the sinking of the corvette in order to create a pretext for an attack on Southern Korea.

The gains from the United States, whose military contingent in the territory of New Korea comprises 28 thousand military personnel, resulted in renewed support for Seoul. Along the other border, one of the largest armies in the world, the Korean one, is stationed, which, as is commonly believed, has 1 million people. However, according to experts, the formation of the Northern Koreans is outdated, and they are unlikely to risk the outbreak of a large-scale military action against the beautiful army of the Northern Korea. American contingent.

Japan, at its core, said that it could impose sanctions against the Korean Republic through the sinking of a foreign Korean ship, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said in advance, reports the Korean Yonhap agency.

Nowadays, investments will be made by Korean companies in various sectors. Shares of KB Financial fell 4.9%, Samsung Electronics - 2.1%, and Hyundai Motor fell 5.8%. Investor fears showed signs in the listed airlines and tourism industry. “The sharp rise in the dollar against the Korean won prompted massive selling of airline stocks,” said Kyung Um-dong, a spokesman for the Bank of Korea. Korean Air Lines fell 5.3%, Asiana Airlines fell 9.9%, and tour operator Hana Tour spent 5.8% of its market capitalization. The Bank of Korea has scheduled a special meeting late Tuesday evening to discuss trends in the foreign exchange and financial markets.

Forecast for the connection with the war in Southern Korea.

Shanovny readers! How many of us can keep up with the evolving situation in Syria and South Korea?

Apparently, on April 7, 2017, two ships of the US naval forces were ordered to attack the Syrian airbase with 59 Tomahawk missiles for clearly far-fetched charges of a chemical attack on the civilian population. Thus, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, only 23 missiles reached the base. The objective damage to the base is even small, often due to the fact that the Russian military was ahead of the Americans about the attack 2 years before the attack and ahead of the Syrians, due to the fact that the damage to this factor is objectively extremely small And, in the end, the smog is not Poshkodzheni.

The strike on the Syrian airbase was ordered at the hour of the arrival of Chinese kernels in America, which is clearly not a coincidence. At the same time, a colossal pressure is being exerted on Russia with the aim of suppressing it in order to protect itself from Syria.

At the same time, dramatic undertones develop around the southern core. Trump is threatening to block military forces against Korea because it cannot cope with its nuclear weapons. Aircraft carriers and other US forces hover near the Korean area. At the same time, Southern Korea is not going to test the nuclear war, on the 15th anniversary of Kim Jong Im's birthday, Southern Korea is going to conduct a final test of the nuclear war.

This is the current situation in Syria and North Korea.

Now I turn to the presentation of my thoughts on the current situation regarding Syria and Northern Korea. And what about the further plans of the Americans.

Before Syria, then the main goal of America will be intertwined with Russia. In this case, Syria recognizes the defeat, and Russia recognizes the colossal losses of its reputation as a fearful country and an unreliable partner. Otherwise, screw Russia in such a way as to guarantee the non-delusion of its troops from Syria, in the event of a massive American attack on Syria, with this very result - the defeat of Syria and the even stronger destruction of Russia. However, Russia’s security system does not seem to be breaking, which creates an unpleasant risk of a nuclear war against it in the event of an attack on Syria. Therefore, new provocations and strikes against Syria are possible, using the method of step-by-step evil, Russia’s determination to seize Syria, through the development on a small scale and without failure, to prevent the loss of the middle of the Russian military servicemen, about minimizing the risk of nuclear war. Given Russia's invincible position, it is possible that Ukraine will be ordered to launch a masquerading attack on Donbass, so that Russia will take over the war with Ukraine and be afraid of the operation in Syria.

And the axis of Northern Korea does not protect anyone. The country itself is a tough pot for a country of this size, yet war with it is much less dangerous than with Russia. In addition, if there is a blow to the Southern Korea, this country, under the control of Syria, will almost singly say that the blow will lead to a full-scale war.

And what is very important, the date of nuclear testing in Southern Korea is very close – 15. This itself will become a driving force for an attack on southern Korea.

With all the doctors in the country, it is most likely that the next great war will begin in Korea literally in days.

I’ll try to briefly outline America’s plan to get involved in the war with Southern Korea.

On April 15, 2017, Pivnichna Korea is scheduled to conduct nuclear testing. This is the drive for the American attack on Southern Korea. In conclusion, Southern Korea is launching an attack on the American fleet and bases. The war between America and South Korea begins, until South Korea enters America. Japan is trying to maintain neutrality, lest provocations and American pressure be aimed at dragging Japan into war. America is panting in the wind, Deep Korea is about to launch missile and artillery attacks on the fleet and bases of America and the territory of the fallen Korea. Southern Korea has no chance of victory, but it is important for America to destroy Southern Korea. Southern Korea has a large, motivated and trained ground army, although it is poor in aviation and air defense, a large coastal fleet, a large number of underground syntheses, warehouses and factories. America is dying in the world, and Korea is bearing the burden of war on earth. The war is becoming protracted, so there is no way to recuperate or capitulate South Korea.

And here we come to the head of the war. At any moment, the Americans will call for a massive nuclear strike on Japan and southern Korea with submarines from the position of white Korea, calling for a massive nuclear strike on Japan and southern Korea. Eastern Korea, so that the dead Eastern Koreans could not reveal the truth. I understand that it seems greedy and impotent, but the American elite has a conscience all day long, but I want to add insolence and impropriety.

In addition, America calls China from the continental Korea and blocks exports from China.

The Vikoryist war is being hailed as a miracle bonanza for the collapse of a giant mess on the American stock market, which takes away reliability for the price, and allows the informed oligarchs to make money on the ruined suckers. iv.

In America, a new exchange of rights and freedoms will be introduced, and the police regime will be strengthened.

As a result of the collapse of markets and the loss of rights, a single nuclear attack on any population center in America could be organized.

A large number of refugees are about to flow from the Korean Republic. At the border with China, the Chinese troops do not dare to shoot at the refugees. As a result, part of the flow of refugees penetrates both China and Russia.

Thus, America's goals during the war are:

1. Inflicting a nuclear strike on the political allies and economic competitors of Japan and the former Korea under the ensign of the former Korea with further weakening and subordination of these countries.
2. Introduction of Chinese goods from the American market.
3. The reason for the collapse of the stock market and the exchange of rights.
4. Liquidation of the independent Korean power
5. The creation of a migration crisis in China and Russia.

America's strategy can lead to negative consequences for America:

1. Eastern Korea, China and Russia under the command of Eastern Korea can launch a nuclear attack on the United States.

2. Industrial enterprises that belong to the Americans from China may be nationalized by China once serious sanctions are introduced against China.

3. The union between Russia and China will be celebrated.

I encourage everyone to discuss my thoughts and ideas.

This analytical article was written after the closure of the American market.

The key factor that contributed to the foreign exchange flows of the past year was in no way related to monetary policy or economic data. The rising voltage between the US and Southern Korea was causing a collapse USD/JPY, some investors are worried that the conflict could lead to military action. Although we remember that the likelihood of war (especially nuclear) is low, at the same time one of the most urgent periods in history, we need to prepare for the impossible.

There is plenty to ask our readers about how much they can fall dollar If the United States starts a war with Southern Korea, then, first of all, we want to strengthen the dollar so that the dollar of the past year has fallen sharply before the 1990s. Other foreign currencies, such as the pound, as well as the Australian and New Zealand. dollars. While there is little doubt that the war will have a negative impact on USD/JPY, it could immediately cause the dollar to appreciate in currencies with a high beta coefficient, as AUDі UNZD. As a rule, Japanese and Swiss franc show the best results during the war, so all new bets, including USD/JPY, will be included.

If you look at a number of the largest military conflicts of the remaining three rocks, you can clearly see a trend that dollar index It literally falls in the hour of war. Military spending is drawing in more pennies, and commodity prices are rising sharply during such periods, putting further pressure on the American economy. In the two months following the outbreak of the conflict in Libya, the dollar index fell by as much as 5%, and in the first three months of the other war in Persia, the dollar index fell by more than 9%. A similar weakening occurred after the First War at the Persian Butte and then after missile attacks on Baghdad. American stocks are likely to show bad results, either in the month before the outbreak of war or after.

This time, the collapse of currencies lies ahead of us as a reaction to China. Since China will continue to take a neutral position, not supporting South Korea, Europe, the Australian and New Zealand dollars will react weaker (although all the same), but China will find itself in the very center of the conflict. There is still little doubt that Southern Korea will lose and the Swedish currency will lose, and the dollar will continue to fall in price, and the frantic war itself could collapse USD/JPY to 105, or else the Swedish currency will win. The currency pair will also change quickly. The outlook for USD/JPY is bleak, and the next step will be 108.50/108.00.

In addition to a possible war, economic indicators will pour into the US dollar, which will be disappointing: the number of applications for withdrawal of aid unemployment grew up, and inflationary the pressure becomes weak. Members of the Monetary Policy Committee were dissatisfied with the current level of inflation, and the weaker ones felt that the prices of the traders and traders were depressing their positions.

According to the words of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley It will take some time for inflation to rise to 2%, with the resulting weakening dollar pouring into import prices. As a result, river inflation indicators will be weak at present, and economic growth may be slightly more pronounced. Dudley is one of the Federal Reserve's top officials, and his cautious stance confirms that the central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates. Look Dudley and the heads of the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and St. Louis Charles and James Bullard The first person has the right to vote at the Fed's monetary policy meetings.

In the near future, the most important economic news in the USA will be given soon let's separate Sales and minutes of the remaining meeting Fed. Although quicker spending could be eliminated from the support of rising wages and sizable shares, the Fed protocol showed that for everything, being soft, below the front, the central bank does not want anything to do with normalization. ї balance in the spring.

The weakening of the crisis, associated with tensions between the United States and South Korea, also ensured a daily pressure on the local currency. The New Zealand dollar, having shown the best results over the past year, has continued to fall even more quickly. Judging by what happened after meeting Before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy head, Graham Wheeler, spoke about the possibility of currency intervention, officials were dissatisfied with the currency's value. The RBNZ dropped the multi-unit rate without changes and stated that inflation could fall even further in the next few quarters. Wheeler also stating that currency intervention is possible in the future.

Wheeler's aide John McDermott echoed the importance of his words, saying that the RBNZ would change its rhetoric around the NZD in order to acknowledge its dissatisfaction, and thus the first step before possible intervention. RBNZ from Pandora's screenshot, and the sector's business activity index service, and also given let's separate Sales and prices of manufacturers, as reported in this year, will not be able to provide support for the currency, especially after a fall in the activity index virobnichy sector. We understand that NZD/USD drop to 0.7250 or, perhaps, drop to 0.7200.

The Australian dollar, as opposed to the New Zealand dollar, has been falling in price gradually for the rest of the year, as the possible war has a positive impact on varity. gold and other commodity goods that benefit the AUD. The profitability of American government bonds fell more sharply than the profitability of Australian ones, and this change in the profitability spread helped to limit the decline AUD/USD. Given that the Australian dollar still has a high beta coefficient, it is likely to fall under pressure through a weakening risk.

One hope for a new one - this is about employment In Australia, which will appear this year, judging by the remaining activity indices, the increase in the number of people employed in the manufacturing sector and the sphere of services will be consistent. Ale before the appearance of this news will be published protocol the remaining meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and in view of the reduction in forecasts for the central bank, it appears that its rhetoric will not be able to provide support for the currency. Traders of AUD/USD also follow the data on let's separate sales and to the promise production to China, as well as the support of 0.7950.

USD/CAD Mayzhe has been in love all last week, having fallen on Friday in the first ten trading days. There have been no major economic news, but the currency pair has been trading for most of this year due to the closure of short positions, the discounting of high-risk currencies and the support of $50 on the market. naphtha. However, fundamental indicators still support the appreciation of the Canadian currency, and we expect that the “Canadian” will resume this coming season and, perhaps, we will also benefit from selling USD/CAD.

A single indicator for what kind of life is going on is the price index spozhivachiv. It appears that there is a positive impact on the currency, based on the warehouse price of the Business Activity Index Ivey grew sharply in the previous month. As inflation rises and the market situation improves, traders are starting to think that the Bank of Canada can raise rates once again.

lb. Having also fallen on this year, but its spending was apparently small through the support at the level of 1.2950, ​​which is surprising, and the unambiguously “dovish” statement of the Bank of England on monetary policy and quarterly sound about inflation. This week is a big day for the British pound. We still think that the GBP is collapsing downward, but its share will lie in the face of the economic news that is coming from this world. In all G7 countries, Great Britain will have the most economic data. Thus, reports will be published before inflation, employmentі let's separate Sales, while inflation and spending, which have led to everything, appear to be worse, are less clear, and the situation on the market is about to improve, judging by the business activity indices. The key levels for GBP are 1.3060 above and 1.2930 below.

The number of new products has a positive impact on Euro. The most stable currency among all wire currencies. The euro showed better results, lower than the US dollar, the pound and the Syrian currencies. The remaining important economic news was missing, the euro continued to appreciate the volume of positive data that appeared last month, and the optimism of the European Central Bank, but at the same time, difficulties were pouring through its ears. laziness in riziku.

What is the future of the Eurozone? commercial virobnitstva, GDP, tradeі inflation. Germany's data was decidedly poor, and if the French economy is showing signs of weakness, regional figures may be mixed. In addition to the live price index, most of these reports are unlikely to be in line with the euro. Therefore, we now understand that the euro will show better results, lower than USD, GBP and NZD, and better than JPY and, possibly, CAD.

Keti Lien, Former Director of Currency Strategy at BK Asset Management

New Korea is a unique region in terms of economic growth. During 1960-2010, GDP per capita at purchasing power parity increased 25 times and today to 36.6 thousand. dollars Now Korea is a highly developed country, a member of the “Great Twenty”, the 11th largest economy in the world. Korea is often cited as a model of successful dirigisme—the handing over of power to the economy. Oleksandr Zholud respectfully studied the current economic history of Korea and knew the evidence for nutrition, and indeed the state handed over such a good thing for the economy.

The Republic of Korea, or as it is most often called after the Korean War of 1950-53, New Korea, is a unique region in terms of economic growth. For 50 years (1960-2010) GDP per capita at constant prices (including inflation) at purchasing power parity (PPP) for 25 times. The country, which began on the same level as China, has a GDP of 36.6 thousand as of May. dollars

Small 1. GDP per capita in constant dollars 1990, Pivnichna and Pivdenna Korea, 1950-2008

This significant growth phenomenon madly aroused the interest of economists. This may seem surprising to the broad consensus, but today in the economic middle there is no consensus on what helped Korea itself achieve similar successes. This article is an attempt to describe the factors and policies that influenced the development of the Korean economy and possible lessons for Ukraine.

The economic development of Korea should be divided into 3 periods: import substitution, export orientation, industrialization.

First period, 1953-1961: “import substitution”

After the end of the war, Korea became a rival for most of Africa, not to mention Europe. Before independence, most of the capital and lands were under the control of the Japanese colonialists. These assets were confiscated for the sake of the state and privatized after the end of the Other World War, often the buyers were existing native groups with ties. The first challenge to the launch of economic growth was the popular idea of ​​import substitution—“self-sufficiency” of the economy at that time. To achieve this, high (up to 77% of the price) import tariffs were imposed, importers were unable to refuse special allowances for imported products, and exchange rates were increased at the same time. This policy made it possible for a number of businessmen to gain access to power, which were later formed by “controversial corporations” and chaebols, but the policy was a failure - the average growth rate at that time was equal to 5.5%, which is not enough for the country that renews itself after war. The irrevocable financial, technical and humanitarian assistance from the United States did not help, which amounted to up to 10% of Korea's GDP in the Republic - from 1954 to 1960In the middle, over two-thirds of short-term imports were financed by US aid. In 1960, the next presidential (and vice-presidential) elections are held, in which the 85-year-old President Lee Sin-man wins the great battle. The elections were marked by significant disruptions and massive student protests (the army fired on the protesters, killing 180 and injuring thousands of civilians), which led to the collapse of the regime of Li Sin Man. The result was the short-term “friend of the Korean Republic”, as the military junta overthrew the country in favor of Park Chung-hee, leaving the country in disarray.

Another period, 1962-1972: “export orientation”

Park Chung-hee was an irreconcilable opponent of communism, which did not lead him to actively promote the state's handing over of the economy, the creation of a five-year regime and the illegal reinvestigation of political opponents. At the first stage, we tried to carry out an active fight against corruption and businessmen close to the former government, but no significant “landings” were achieved, and connections between great business and the government were no longer strengthened. From the failed import substitution policy they switched to an export orientation.

Small 2. Production, agricultural production and processing industry, parts of the added value, %

It is very important to understand the geopolitical situation of the early 60s: Korea paints the waters with a large colonizer - Japan (Japan pays billions of dollars in compensation) and in exchange for military political support for US actions, Vietnam is denied access to purchases that the US made for the campaign . For example, according to Kim's assessment (cited by , the original 1970 article is not available online), Korea's income from contracts related to the Vietnam War amounted to $185 million in 1967. or close to 4% of the region’s GDP for this region.

The purchases also provided foreign currency to finance daily import purchases, and they created market guarantees and helped to select new products, which could then be used in other projects. For tributes Glassman and Choi , 21% of daily work in 1965-1969 was generated by US contracts. The projects were carried out by civilian companies at the chaebol warehouse. For example, Hyundai arrived on the Pattan-Narathwat road near Thailand in 1965, which was responsible for supplying military supplies to Vietnam. As a result, 40% to 60% of gross fixed capital accumulation (GFAC) resulted from public procurement contracts from the United States and financial and humanitarian assistance from the United States in the 1960s.

The new order has continued to actively introduce itself into the economy, but has changed the emphasis of its introduction. Import tariffs were reduced, business volumes were reduced, and export quotas were established, access to subsidized loans and other goods was denied. Until 1967, there was an overflow of permitted goods for import (others were restricted. They could only be imported subject to special permission and exchange for the purchase of hard currency for this purpose), but not outside Under the pressure of 1967, the regime changed the policy to a reverse one - the transfer of illegal goods .

Loans to exporters were provided both by foreign banks under government guarantees and by the country through renationalized banks. The main development of industry came through the labor of production, which could obtain labor from the agricultural dominion. Since in 1963, 43.1% of GDP was generated and 63.4% of the labor force was employed, then in 1970 the figures26.7% and 50.4% were combined . Stimulation of exports was successful both in absolute terms and in general terms: an increase in exports of $55 million. in 1962 (2.4% of GDP) to 1.6 billion dollars. in 1972 (15% of GDP). The structure of exports shifted from agricultural products and minerals to light industrial goods - the top three leading products in exports in 1970 were textiles (40.8% of exports), plywood (11%) and percussion (10.8%). Labor-intensive light industrial goods became the mainstay of 70% of exports, so that the country, increasingly in line with the classical theory of international trade, was gaining its competitive advantage. Korea's main trading partners were the United States (47.3%) and Japan (28.1%).

Small 3. Net exports equal to 100% of GDP

Exports grew at an even higher rate - in 1963-1969 there was an average increase in bu equal to 35% , at that time, as imports grew by an average of 22% sharply. At the same time, it should be noted that during this period, net exports lost a negative average of -6.9% of GDP 1962-1971. The support of such a persistent and significant foreign trade deficit resulted in an influx of external capital - initially financial assistance, then investment and capital.

Through the fact that in order to remove the majority of sovereign incentives, it was necessary to have significant commitments to production and export, the concentration of business and the development of chaebols was achieved. Credit support to the government has not always been successful, which often resulted in the expenditure of additional resources on a series of failed projects. In order to generate income for the provision of such expenses, successful companies should be protected from entering the market by new participants. 4 attempts to change legislation for the sake of deregulation and competition during this period proved to be unsuccessful.

In the 1960s, Korean firms actively invested in new assets - the rate of growth of gross fixed capital accumulation increased from 10.5% per year in the first half of the decade to 33.2% in the other. Companies did not receive any cash on such investments and the stink was actively growing by the borgs - the net worth of assets fell from 51.6% in 1965 to 23.3% in 1970, a large proportion of companies appeared with little positive cash flow, but critically lay due to the extension of credit lines and the accumulation of government bills. When bank loans were available to companies, they borrowed from the domestic unregulated financial market, often at a premium.

Third period, 1973-1979: “development of important and chemical industry”

U lipny born 1971 The Federation of Korean Industries (representative of the interests of great companies) attacked President Park with promises of buying up the power of the borg of problem companies. The last addition to the accumulated problems was the 17-day devaluation of the national currency in the previous month, which led to an increase in the serviceability of foreign currency loans. The possibility of bankruptcy of such firms was considered, but through the fight against foreign investments, a more expensive and more politically acceptable option was chosen from various bankruptcies. A little more than fate has passed, and the order has seen the decree (so-called.Decree 3 sickles ), in which all the old bonds of the companies before the unregulated financial market were replaced with a bond at a single rate (1.35% per month), which had to be paid 5 years after the ternary period without payments. Short-term borgs before the banking system were replaced by unified borgs (8% of deposits, 3 terms of the tax period, 5 times of payments). Real wage rates were practically zero or negative - river inflation in 1971-1974 was consistently 13.5%, 11.7%, 3.2% and 24.3%.

Small 4. Gross accumulation of fixed capital as % of GDP

Therefore, there was a redistribution of the stake in the profit of the government officials for the formal and informal financial sector, having already won a great business, while small and medium-sized ones were a significant part of the exchange in the possibility of withdrawing loans. However, this brought even more temporary relief to the great business - the change in credit payments led to the opportunistic growth of new borgs.

In addition to direct credit support for large businesses, there is a series of moratoriums on servicing companies in front of unofficial financial markets. Companies that were unable to directly invest in the government of Galusia, without losing access to financing (the banking system was under the control of the government), and had problems with taxes and the exchange of licenses, which closed for them access to promising markets. A lot of companies made excessive efforts because they could compete through the availability of common products.

U sіchnya born 1973 Park Chung-hee voiced the “declaration on the development of the important and chemical industry” (English: Heavy and Chemical Industry, HCI). The 1970s were the peak of government support for corporations. Prior to this, the stimulation of exports did not include the types of industrial activities that needed to be encouraged. Moving on to direct support of the galusas is the result of three main factors (for Anne O. Krueger (1995)):

1) a change in the military presence of the United States, which necessitated the development of a powerful military-industrial complex;

2) an increase in wages through the underground growth of the economy, which made labor-intensive exports less competitive. The growth of neighboring countries with similar labor-intensive production;

3) the presence of a large deficit in the flow of the balance of payments, while stimulating exports through the extraction of imported resources from producers.

The shortened financial support from the US side meant that the foreign trade deficit had to be curtailed, as was the case for its financing.

Small 5 Rate of growth of real GDP, % of river

There was the creation of national industrial enterprises, one of the most popular applications being POSCO (Pohang Iron and Steel Company) - a metallurgical plant produced by Japan as part of the program of mutual frost between the great metropolis that colony. The agreement on credit, financial and technical assistance was signed in 1969, steel production began in 1972. The enterprise was privatized in the 1990s, and today the fourth largest steel producer is in St. iti.

During this period, Korea's GDP grew more rapidly (11% in the 1973-1979 period versus 9.6% in 1963-1972), although opponents of the handed over power mean that the main growth was due to the influence of the foreign direct export economy and the tide directly their foreign investments and Yogo tempi could have been victorious without the hand of the state. It should be noted that in 1980, the first decline in GDP was about thirty years old. At this point, the killing of Park Chung-hee and another naphtha shock crazily sank in, but the increase was obvious and to this day.

1979-2017: removal of pardons

In 1979, the population was at a low point, which was leading to a crisis and the order was about to collapse under the pressure of specific companies to create more equal minds - a process that is troubling to this day. First of all, there was another naphtha shock, which caused a blow to the chemical industry - one of the reasons for the significant government support. In other words, accelerated inflation to 18.3% in 1979 and 28.7% in 1980 through the great budgetary and foreign trade deficits and price inflation by government policy led to a shortage of a large number of liveable goods. On the third day, October 26, 1979. There was a successful attempt at President Park Chung-hee, a dictator who single-handedly pursued the tactical and strategic development of the economy. Fourthly, after the drought of 1980, the harvest was even more rotten, and GDP was higher than in 1953, showing a decline of 1.7%.

A group of military forces came to power, along with Chong Doo Hwan, who, fearing the renewal of the military conflict with Southern Korea, sent the supernatural camp into disarray. There have been frequent protests by students and local residents against the political dictatorship and the power of the chaebols - for example, the uprising in Gwangju in the 1980s, which was strangled by the army, resulting in the death of over hundreds of and people. Protests from the trade unions have begun. The protesters would only achieve success in 1996, when President Chung Doo-hwan was condemned to the former term for the supra-world violence of the forces in the suppressed protests.

Until the early 1980s, the level of GDP per capita in constant 1990 dollars in Korea was approximately the same as that of today's Ukraine. Leaders of Chun Doo-hwan explained the futility of continuing the policy of active transfer of power into the economy - Korea at that time had already approached the technological frontier, and its economy had developed to the point that it was practically impossible to transfer the success of this or that transfer. This was the result of economic liberalization. The won did not cause further economic growth - from 1981 to 1997 (the period of the Asian financial crisis) - the average GDP grew by 9.1%. Imports were reduced, new government projects in the industry were not launched, and businesses were denied greater equal access to loans.

However, as it became clear, especially after the Asian crisis of 1997, the country lost significant structural imbalances. The banking system still has problems with significant loans due to the pressure of the owners of large corporations, which (for example, Daewoo) went bankrupt. The chaos of chaebols is associated with swindling, financial fraud, sophisticated payment of taxes and inflows to power - the remaining fates of similar vessels have been inflicted on the kernels of such great companies as Samsung, SK , Hyundai, Hangva ta Lotte. At the same time, the heads of the great chaebols, after the conviction, revoked the amnesty - as was the case with Lee Kun-hi (Samsung) abo Chong Mong-ku (Hyundai). At the end of 2016, the first female president was impeached Park Kin-hye for being accused of corruption.

1953-1979: three decades of the sovereign handover

Such a policy has little positive impact on economic growth - there is no single thought. It is most likely that at the stage of import substitution there will be little negative influx, which means that the pace of GDP growth is moderate, regardless of massive financial assistance. The countries' import restrictions did not have the direct effect of changing the external trade deficit, nor did they result in a real increase in industry. The situation only changed due to the reorientation towards external expansion.

The periods of export orientation and the development of important industries are similar in the sense that in both periods there was an active transfer of powers, but they are constantly disrupted by the mechanisms of such transfer. At first, any exporter would deny access to preferences for the establishment of export plans - low-rate loans, hard currency, tax payments, etc. That’s why the development of galusies was due to market laws - the country specialized in light industrial goods, with little competitive advantage - cheap labor. If the power took up the development of an important and chemical industry, the main goal was to maximize profits and the defense of the country. Therefore, the policy of direct support for specific manufacturing and enterprises was stalled - by setting prices for them lower than market prices for materials, directing engineers and other qualified labor force. This led to the introduction of control over liveable prices, the emergence of a shortage of liveable goods and the black market, and the result of an increase in economic and export growth.

Varto respect that he divided the camp from the point of view of the role of the power in the development of Korea does not at all reflect the gender of economic schools or the nationality of the authors. So, let’s highlight the role of the power in the development of Korea as a proponent Alice Amsden with her book Asia's Next Giant: South Korea And representatives of the World Bank sent a song of peace ( investigation There are problems with the lending power, where there are problems in the market, for example, asymmetric information in lending, problems in achieving economies of scale in competition, etc.). Opponents pointed out that with the expansion at obvious world prices, the productivity of important and chemical weeds became inferior to the productivity of the light industry, which developed in the 1970s ( Yoo Jung-ho, 1990 ), imports by OECD countries from Korea in the 1970s were lower, and lower from Taiwan, which is similar to the structure of exports, but did not have a significant government contribution during this period. The insane complexity of the assessment is the lack of a complete “control variant” with which Korea could be compared. All counter-historical assessments are based on these and other assumptions, which cannot be stated unambiguously.

In general, over the entire period one can see the following factors that influenced the development of the Korean economy:

According to the economy, there are two types of economic growth - extensive and intensive. The first one is based on a large number of borrowed resources - capital, labor force, etc. The other means more efficient use of available resources. European countries and Western America developed significantly due to intensive growth - the emergence of new, effective technologies. In the same hour of the SRSR, the period of industrialization was the initial butt of extensive growth - for the recruitment of people to work in the industrial sector (under the rationing system), the importance of private protection (the work of Torgsin with the purchase of gold and e hour of the Holodomor), Primus protection and the purchase of waste factories and other daily capital. The problem with extensive growth is that soon the resources will run out. So, you can increase the workforce by getting women before breeding, coloring their strength with programs of illumination and illumination, but it is unlikely that you will be able to capture the amount of everyone - they are not meant for people of advanced ages - before breeding and starting everything. They are equal to candidates and doctors of science. Moreover, after the exhaustion of resources, the growth of the USSR significantly increased, which led to the fall of the Radyan empire.

In the 1970s and 1980s, a significant portion of the emerging economists believed in the “Running Economic Divas” as a result of repeating the trending approach and increasing efficiency. However, in the 1990s, after the economic growth of Japan and the financial problems of Korea, the prevailing idea became that their success was the result of friendly minds (or political ones) in foreign trade, Annex to the significant mobilization of resources. So, as in the USSR, such mobilization allows for an instantaneously significant rate of economic growth simply by increasing the growth factors of production.

Lessons for Ukraine

Ukraine is unlikely to be able to completely copy the evidence of the Invaded Korea through low economic and political boundaries:

• Subject to labor reserve c. There is no significant number of young people who, from less productive agricultural rule, moved into industry. The least popular ones are those who are good enough to work 10-12 years a day for an insignificant salary. In Korea in 1980 (after a significant direct government transfer), 34% of all workers were employed in the current year, in 1963 it was 63.4%; in Ukraine in 2012-2015 this indicator reached the average of 17.3%.
• A significant amount of budget expenditures for social protection will require a significant tax contribution. Once preferences are given to companies and companies, their influence on the economy will no longer grow. The ancient population benefited from the additional advance of social and medical benefits.
• Low rhubarb is protected and low toxicity of Primus mobilization of wastes
• There is a significant external support - the Korean economy experienced a foreign trade deficit from 1953 to 1997 due to aid from the United States and Japan in the 1950s-1960s and credits in a later period, as well as maintaining access to the markets of the USA and Japan.
• The political dislike of dictatorship and the further expansion of power and great business.

Notes:

Close to 1000 dollars. GDP per person. For leveling purposes, GDP per capita for PKS in Ukraine in 2015 reached a maximum of 8,000 dollars.
The Americans immediately placed high emphasis on the sale of confiscated Japanese assets, and a few Korean citizens supported these efforts, so power passed to the new Korean order. The order initially put banks on sale in 1954 with a low position in order to suppress the sale at a high price with exchange rates for the dzherel koshtiv, there was no response to the proposal. The order has sharply weakened its powers. Vikorist political connections and great industrial capitalists deposited money from the banks in order to buy the banks. Once privatization was completed in 1957, all commercial banks were under the control of industrial capitalists. According to one study, the share of insider loans from such banks exceeded 50 hundred. The buyers actively financially supported the Liberal Party of President Lee Sin Man. (by robotPhillip Wonhyuk Lim “Path Dependence in Action: The Rise and Fall of the Korean Model of Economic Development” )
The cream of commercial banks and “deposit banks” is under the control of the state, having a significant internal unregulated market, which puts pressure on us in front of short-term positions. As of 1972, loans from the unregulated market amounted to 346 billion won, from commercial banks - 646 billion and from depository banks - 823 billion (div. page 166 of the bookFinancial Development in Korea, 1945-1978 ).
Vin buv 1988 has no reason Roku. Until then, there were funds for state servicemen and military officers, and yet the stench covered an insignificant part of the population.

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